Comment / It’s the economy, stupid - or is it?

31 October 2014 Andy Hardy

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Image removed.It is often said that ultimately all elections in Western economies are decided by the prevailing state of the economy in which the election is fought. But having just witnessed the party conferences of all major UK political parties, we can say with a high degree of certainty that the 2015 general election will be fought on much broader territory. And the NHS – no surprise to most of us – will be at the heart of the battle.

I have pointed out before that the election and the development of health policies by each political party will represent an opportunity for finance professionals in the NHS to ‘lead by numbers’ – my presidential theme. 

As the conference season unfolded, there was no shortage of numbers being bandied around in relation to the health service. Labour promised a £2.5bn increase a year to fund thousands of additional staff. 

Our job in finance is to help the service understand what this means – or what it could mean. There have already been reports that the money could only be phased in, as it would be funded from a new mansion tax and new tax levies. But there are more fundamental questions we need to ask. For a start, what would the £2.5bn be on top of – flat real-terms funding?

 The Conservatives were not far behind, with the prime minister committing to continue the government policy of real-terms growth for the NHS. Welcome as this is, we surely need to be asking about the knock-on impact of a continued NHS funding ringfence.

Cuts for other government spending depart-ments, including local government-run social services, will increase both the demand and the cost pressures for the NHS. Who else can do the modelling of this impact if not NHS finance staff?

Finally in the conference season, we heard from the Liberal Democrats, who chose to focus on mental health. Highlighting a £100bn cost per year to the economy from mental ill health – close to the total cost of the NHS – they announced new maximum waiting times.

We all know from experience that waiting time targets come at a cost. Our job is to help identify those costs – both in terms of cash and potential opportunity costs.

In reality, the NHS is never far from the limelight in UK elections. But in 2015, the NHS looks set to share the billing with the economy – or perhaps even dominate the agenda.

I am convinced that finance professionals in the health service have both an obligation and an opportunity. We need to ensure the debate is informed and based on fact, with the real service and financial implications of any promises thought through and tested. And we need to help develop emerging policies to ensure that they are practical and will deliver the outcomes and services for patients that we all want.

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