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Election watch: Epilogue

by Seamus Ward 7 May 2010

Now the fun and games begin. The predictions of a hung Parliament with the Conservatives holding the most seats proved to be correct and over the next few days the political horse-trading will take place in Whitehall before the puff of white smoke emerges.

A Conservative/ Lib Dem pact (I think they would be loathe to call it the Con-Dem alliance) is not out of the question, nor is a minority Cameron government propped up with support from various shades of Northern Ireland Unionist. Labour will try to woo Nick Clegg, along with the nationalists from Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (together with the first Green MP, Caroline Lucas).

What this means for the NHS is anyone’s guess. We know that frontline services would be protected and funding should at least be at the level of inflation, whether Labour or Conservatives are the major players in the new government. And the focus on efficiency and quality will sharpen.

However, some questions spring to mind. Would a minority Tory party be able to push through their planned early public sector savings (remember, they pledged to make savings in the current financial year) in a summer Budget? Would the Lib Dems demand the scalp of strategic health authorities as part of a wider programme of ‘cuts in bureaucracy’, if it enters a formal coalition with Labour or the Conservatives? Is the planned rise in national insurance dead in the water, even if a Labour MP has the keys of Number 10? Would the support of Unionist and nationalist MPs in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales have to be bought with better financial deals for those devolved administrations?

What is clear is that it was a bad night for Labour’s health team. Mike O’Brien, Gillian Merron, Phil Hope and Ann Keen all lost their seat to the resurgent Tories, meaning health secretary Andy Burnham is the only member of the team that will return to the Commons. All the shadow health ministers and Liberal Democrat health spokesman Norman Lamb retained their seats.

In Wyre Forest, Independent MP Richard Taylor, the consultant rheumatologist who swept into the Commons in 2001 on the back of a campaign to stop the downgrading of Kidderminster Hospital, lost his seat to the Conservatives.

The dust is settling. Over to you Mr Cameron, Mr Brown and Mr Clegg.

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Election watch: Week five

by Seamus Ward 6 May 2010

It's all over, bar the shouting. The combatants have criss-crossed the country like manifesto-spouting Tasmanian devils for the last time before arriving at their constituencies.

The last few days of the campaign mean hammering home the message (although Labour did get in a bit of a spin over tactical voting), so Gordon Brown warns of the danger of NHS cuts under a Cameron administration, while Nick Clegg promises to rid the service of waste.

On Tuesday (4 May) David Cameron denies his plans to squeeze spending in the current financial year, should he win power, would lead to cuts in frontline NHS services. Though he acknowledges the scale of the cuts will be greater than seen for many years, he refuses to go into greater detail.

He returns to this theme later in the day as he visits Northern Ireland to give his backing to the electoral pact the Conservatives have made with the Ulster Unionists (who have agreed to take the Tory whip if elected).

Potentially, the Ulster Unionists could give Mr Cameron the majority he seeks in the Commons, and the local party has been criticised by its opponents for being in cahoots with the Conservatives. This is particularly acute when Mr Cameron seems to suggest that Northern Ireland, together with Wales and Scotland, will have to make do with less.

'There is no way Northern Ireland will be singled out over and above any other part of the UK', Mr Cameron says, leaving ample wriggle room.

Bad news for Mr Cameron on the eve of the election (5 May) as X-Factor Svengali and trouser model Simon Cowell backs his campaign (in the interest of balance, it should be pointed out that fellow talent show judge Piers Morgan has voiced his support for Mr Brown).

Visiting Bradford on 5 May, Mr Brown is asked about mental health funding. Reporters are too shocked by the specific nature of the question to record his response

As the parties’ leaders make their way home, they will perhaps be reflecting on the gaffes, the first televised leaders’ debates, the rise of Nick Clegg and how many votes the Zombie party will get (ok, so maybe not the last one).

But will they also be thinking about the health service – the dog that didn't bark in this election campaign. This is my fifth election as a health reporter and I can’t think of one where the NHS has been on the agenda less. Yes, there have been vague promises to 'protect the frontline' and the sport of manager-bashing was pursued for a few minutes in the first televised debate, but little beyond that.

Certainly, Labour has neutralised the NHS issue that has dominated some recent elections – waiting times. But there has been little discussion about the scale and type of efficiencies that will have to be made in the next few years, whoever is in the hot seat at Number 10. Maybe this is intentional as the parties seek to keep their message positive, knowing the electoral can of worms that would be opened by such a debate. And, as noted in previous blogs, the money is not available to fund great swathes of reform.

The polls point to no outright victor, and in the event of a hung Parliament there could be days or even weeks of horse-trading before a government is formed. Of course, Scotland has been getting by well with a minority government in recent times, but history tells us that where there is a hung Parliament at Westminster another election often follows soon after. Happy voting.

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